Marine Corps Base Qauntico -- The democracy the United States hoped to see take root in Egypt never materialized, and there’s little Washington can do about it.
That was the assessment of Dr. Steven A. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations during his speech, “Egypt: What Went Wrong,” at the Gray Research Center Auditorium on March 10.
An expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy, Cook quickly reviewed the history of U.S. relations with Egypt prior to the July 3, 2013 coup d’etat that resulted in the overthrow of then-president Mohamed Morsi and the suspension of the Egyptian constitution.
Since then, the new government, led by former army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, has pushed forward a sweeping crackdown on all political opponents. Violence continues to plague the country that Dr. Amin Tarzi, director of Middle East Studies, Marine Corps University, called “one of the most pivotal countries in the area we call the Middle East.”
“It hasn’t worked out that well and Washington has been under a tremendous amount of criticism from the Egyptian elite,” Cook said.
The political upheaval in Egypt came on the heels of the so-called “Arab Spring,” the wave of demonstrations and protests that began in December 2010 before reaching virtually every corner of the Arab world.
Worried about being on the wrong side of what might have been a startling political reformation in the strategically important lynchpin country to U.S. foreign policy in the region, the Obama administration remained neutral as the process played out. Things have hardly gone as planned, Cook noted, as Egypt has instead moved to a more authoritarian regime, with Islamic extremists from nearby Libya and in the Sinai Peninsula causing additional problems.
As a result, Cook says there is a “deep and profound ambivalence about Egypt in Washington right now.”
“This wasn’t supposed to happen,” he said. “It wasn’t supposed to end this way.”
The developments have left the Obama administration in a conundrum of sorts, Cook noted.
Because of its strategic location and proximity to the Suez Canal, Egypt is a valuable Middle East ally that receives extensive U.S. military aid.
Yet, the country’s weak human rights record opens the administration to criticism from human rights activists, who allege America turns a blind eye to such indiscretions when the issue becomes inconvenient.
Cook cited three reasons for the failure of democracy to take root in Egypt. The first is the fact that a revolution never really took place there because the nation never turned over its political or social order as most revolutions need for change to occur.
Second, the nation’s old political institutions have remained unchanged and lend themselves to authoritarian measures.
Finally, Cook said that Egypt remains a country in search of a true identity.
Quite simply, the nation is torn between its deep Arab roots and a more modern affiliation with the West.
Cook said it remained difficult to predict Egypt’s future, even if the current government follows through on promises to adhere to the “road map” to democracy.
“It’ll certainly be an achievement,” he said, “but it won’t be a transition to democracy.”
— Writer: jhollis@quanticosentryonline.com